***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.6 21.1 0.6 57.5 54.6 20.8 22.1 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.0 22.2 20.8 0.4 56.0 53.8 20.3 21.8 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 20.2 22.4 21.1 0.6 57.4 54.5 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.1 19.4 0.6 57.9 53.7 12.9 14.4 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.3 22.5 19.7 0.7 59.6 54.9 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 20.6 21.1 18.0 1.0 62.9 57.0 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 19.8 21.8 20.8 0.4 55.9 53.8 20.0 21.4 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.2 10.1 18.2 0.8 60.7 55.4 7.5 9.1 10.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 19.6 22.0 20.1 0.8 59.6 55.1 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.9 18.9 0.8 59.5 54.9 19.8 21.1 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 21.9 22.3 19.4 0.9 62.1 56.4 19.9 21.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 18.6 21.5 19.2 1.0 62.7 56.7 18.9 20.4 21.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 19.4 22.3 18.8 1.0 63.0 57.2 19.7 21.2 22.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 19.7 21.9 19.4 0.3 53.8 52.2 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 20.0 22.2 19.6 0.6 58.2 54.0 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 20.0 22.8 19.2 1.0 62.4 56.7 20.3 21.7 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 19.3 21.2 20.4 0.3 53.6 52.1 19.5 20.9 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 18.7 21.2 18.2 0.6 57.0 53.5 19.2 20.6 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.6 21.9 20.9 0.5 56.3 53.9 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 13.5 16.2 16.0 0.6 57.4 53.6 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 19.9 22.2 20.7 0.6 58.2 54.4 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 19.7 21.8 20.3 0.2 52.6 51.3 20.1 21.6 23.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 19.9 22.2 20.7 0.5 56.2 53.9 20.2 21.6 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 19.4 21.6 19.6 0.5 56.3 53.6 19.8 21.2 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.0 19.5 0.5 56.1 53.2 20.2 21.6 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 18.3 21.4 18.4 1.0 62.9 57.1 18.8 20.3 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 21.9 21.8 20.2 0.4 56.0 53.7 20.1 21.4 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.3 19.6 0.7 59.1 54.4 20.1 21.6 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 13.5 16.1 17.1 0.5 56.4 53.1 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 19.8 22.1 21.0 0.5 56.8 54.4 20.2 21.5 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------