***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 19.5 19.8 19.0 1.2 72.3 66.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 19.6 19.9 18.9 1.3 74.4 68.0 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 19.6 19.9 19.1 1.2 71.7 65.8 17.9 18.7 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.8 12.5 17.1 1.0 68.6 63.9 10.5 11.5 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 19.2 20.0 17.5 1.2 70.0 64.8 18.1 19.0 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 17.8 18.6 15.7 1.2 69.6 64.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 19.3 19.6 18.8 1.3 74.3 68.0 17.5 18.4 19.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 6.8 7.7 16.0 1.3 70.6 65.5 5.6 6.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.6 18.1 1.2 70.6 65.1 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 18.8 19.5 16.8 1.2 69.7 64.6 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 19.0 19.9 17.2 1.3 71.1 65.8 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 46 54 100 18.7 19.0 16.9 1.3 71.8 66.4 16.9 17.8 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 19.6 19.9 16.6 1.3 71.2 66.0 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.6 17.7 1.0 67.9 63.1 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 19.6 19.6 17.6 1.0 68.6 64.0 18.0 18.8 19.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 19.4 20.3 17.0 1.2 70.7 65.6 18.2 19.1 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 18.9 19.2 18.6 1.3 73.8 67.8 17.0 17.9 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 18.3 19.0 16.1 1.1 68.1 63.4 17.1 18.0 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 19.3 19.7 19.0 1.3 73.9 67.5 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 13.9 14.1 14.0 1.3 70.1 65.4 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 19.0 19.7 18.7 1.2 70.0 64.5 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 19.5 19.8 18.6 1.2 72.3 66.5 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 19.6 19.9 18.9 1.2 72.2 66.2 17.8 18.7 19.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 18.6 19.3 17.6 1.1 68.6 63.6 17.5 18.4 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 18.9 19.6 17.5 1.0 68.8 63.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 18.8 19.1 16.1 1.3 71.4 66.2 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.5 18.2 1.1 70.3 64.8 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 19.1 19.8 17.4 1.0 68.6 63.9 18.0 18.9 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.9 15.2 1.2 68.5 63.9 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.8 19.1 1.3 74.1 67.7 17.5 18.4 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------