***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.4 8.3 56.0 37.7 33.8 4.4 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.7 8.5 60.2 40.9 36.3 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.4 8.6 57.1 38.5 34.9 5.2 9.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 8.2 9.0 8.0 47.5 28.4 26.2 10.2 15.0 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.1 9.0 10.8 62.3 39.4 36.0 7.3 12.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.3 13.0 68.3 40.1 37.7 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.3 8.3 59.0 38.4 34.6 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.6 14.9 12.7 70.3 42.1 38.7 11.6 18.0 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.8 7.3 10.6 62.4 39.2 36.0 5.9 10.2 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.0 11.4 12.4 67.4 40.4 37.4 9.3 14.5 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 6.2 7.8 10.4 63.2 39.7 36.1 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 5.6 7.5 11.0 67.3 42.2 38.4 5.3 9.7 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.6 8.6 12.0 67.4 41.8 38.3 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.2 10.6 11.6 63.0 40.8 37.6 8.3 13.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 3.6 3.4 6.5 41.4 26.9 24.2 4.5 8.6 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.7 8.5 11.1 64.6 40.0 36.6 6.9 11.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.9 5.6 9.0 66.0 44.3 38.6 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.0 9.6 12.8 64.2 36.8 34.7 8.8 12.9 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.6 7.6 8.7 60.4 41.2 36.7 5.4 10.2 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.3 8.3 15.4 70.1 40.5 37.9 6.6 10.8 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 5.3 6.4 9.2 57.5 37.6 34.1 5.5 9.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 7.4 9.3 66.2 45.1 39.7 4.5 8.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.2 8.2 9.4 62.1 41.7 37.6 6.1 10.6 16.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.0 8.1 10.7 59.5 36.4 34.1 7.3 11.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.9 5.6 9.6 54.4 34.0 30.9 5.5 9.4 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.3 7.7 10.9 60.6 38.1 34.8 6.4 10.6 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.8 5.7 9.3 56.4 36.8 33.1 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 4.7 5.3 8.4 51.2 31.9 28.9 5.6 10.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 10.6 13.3 13.9 67.4 38.7 36.4 11.5 17.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.5 8.4 58.5 39.5 35.3 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------