***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.2 19.2 13.9 125.3 71.5 56.0 7.2 11.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 12.5 13.2 113.8 67.3 52.0 3.8 7.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.8 17.2 13.3 118.3 69.3 53.9 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.1 16.8 15.6 107.4 66.1 52.1 7.5 11.7 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.0 13.2 14.8 106.9 65.8 51.2 4.7 8.3 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.6 19.8 108.5 65.0 52.4 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.6 13.0 13.5 114.3 67.5 51.8 4.6 8.0 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.0 17.7 14.4 89.8 56.7 45.5 9.1 14.9 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.2 14.7 111.0 67.0 50.6 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.3 13.8 15.7 101.2 62.2 48.3 5.1 9.5 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.9 12.6 95.9 61.7 48.6 4.3 7.7 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.1 9.2 11.6 85.8 56.3 44.7 3.8 7.4 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.4 15.1 95.9 60.4 49.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.8 14.6 15.2 102.5 63.3 49.4 5.6 9.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 13.1 15.7 112.9 67.9 53.2 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.6 13.8 96.4 61.5 48.7 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.2 13.4 13.6 114.8 67.7 52.8 5.0 8.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.4 15.4 17.3 98.2 60.5 47.0 6.6 11.5 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 14.0 12.9 112.5 67.1 51.7 4.0 8.0 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.5 11.8 19.0 91.5 56.7 46.2 5.9 9.9 15.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.4 12.5 13.6 120.1 69.9 53.7 4.4 7.4 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.0 13.5 116.4 68.3 53.2 4.3 7.4 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.7 13.1 111.8 67.3 51.2 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.0 15.3 15.2 104.6 63.8 48.8 5.8 10.3 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.7 15.6 16.6 116.8 68.7 54.5 4.9 9.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.0 13.9 96.5 60.7 48.8 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 17.2 16.2 120.7 70.0 55.2 5.2 9.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.3 15.1 105.0 65.2 51.0 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.4 17.3 17.6 95.0 59.2 46.8 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 5.3 14.5 13.3 117.2 68.6 53.3 5.2 8.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------