***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.0 6.4 11.1 107.4 66.5 52.8 1.9 3.7 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.8 12.5 108.2 67.1 55.7 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.8 11.1 106.7 66.1 53.1 2.6 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.3 15.3 116.5 69.0 52.2 4.3 7.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.9 13.4 106.1 65.8 50.7 2.6 5.1 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.6 16.8 94.0 60.5 48.8 3.6 6.8 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.3 7.0 12.7 105.4 66.3 55.2 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.5 16.7 13.9 100.2 62.6 48.2 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 7.5 8.4 11.9 98.1 63.1 48.7 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.6 13.8 96.3 61.3 48.0 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.8 8.9 12.1 104.1 65.0 49.5 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.2 12.0 12.1 107.4 66.0 50.0 3.9 7.2 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.2 14.0 99.6 63.1 50.0 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.3 14.3 103.7 64.1 50.6 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.4 14.8 121.0 70.4 51.1 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.4 13.5 103.3 64.8 49.7 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 5.5 7.6 12.8 108.6 67.2 55.5 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.4 15.8 97.9 61.4 48.7 3.8 7.2 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.2 8.1 12.1 109.1 67.2 55.1 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.3 17.7 96.1 60.3 48.2 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 7.1 10.6 102.9 65.1 50.5 2.4 4.4 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 6.3 9.4 13.0 117.7 69.8 57.4 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.3 8.9 11.6 106.8 65.9 52.6 3.3 5.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.3 13.8 103.0 63.8 50.4 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.9 8.3 14.9 113.9 68.1 55.3 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.3 12.7 102.5 63.6 49.8 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.7 7.6 13.9 110.4 67.2 54.8 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.9 14.8 114.5 68.4 49.9 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.0 13.3 16.4 97.8 61.3 48.7 4.7 9.1 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.1 5.7 12.2 107.9 66.9 55.1 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------