***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 48.6 44.2 45.6 90.7 51.8 46.7 31.9 42.9 55.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 39.6 34.6 46.2 90.4 50.4 46.3 24.3 34.3 45.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 33.9 46.7 45.7 90.9 50.6 45.8 34.4 46.1 59.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 52.3 62.7 52.9 88.5 48.8 44.7 54.1 63.4 72.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 34.5 49.8 53.6 91.4 50.7 46.3 37.1 49.2 63.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 38.9 50.9 70.0 96.4 52.6 48.1 41.0 49.5 58.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 40.0 33.6 45.6 88.5 49.2 45.8 23.3 34.1 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 68.9 81.7 57.6 89.3 46.6 43.1 73.0 83.8 95.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 33.1 45.9 51.6 90.2 49.6 45.2 35.1 46.2 58.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 42.6 54.6 58.1 89.0 46.9 43.5 46.0 56.6 68.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 35.9 47.8 48.9 88.2 47.4 43.9 38.8 49.5 61.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 39.6 50.7 49.1 90.0 48.7 44.2 42.2 51.3 61.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 43.1 55.9 58.2 93.3 51.0 46.3 45.6 55.2 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 43.7 57.6 59.3 93.1 51.1 46.1 44.1 56.8 70.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 33.0 44.8 51.4 89.6 50.4 45.7 34.5 44.6 55.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 38.1 51.0 54.2 92.1 50.3 45.9 40.5 50.8 61.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 40.6 36.6 46.3 91.4 51.7 48.0 25.2 35.4 47.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 42.3 53.8 64.6 89.2 46.4 42.7 45.4 56.2 67.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 46.0 40.1 46.5 91.5 51.3 46.7 27.1 39.2 53.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 36.3 47.5 74.5 90.6 46.7 43.2 39.6 49.6 60.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 30.7 42.2 46.8 91.6 51.6 46.7 31.5 41.2 52.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 42.2 39.9 48.2 95.2 54.1 49.8 26.3 37.0 49.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 46.0 42.3 48.4 93.6 52.8 47.5 30.2 40.5 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 39.9 51.9 56.1 90.3 48.5 44.1 41.8 52.9 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 33.7 46.9 56.4 91.2 50.7 46.2 34.3 46.1 60.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 32.4 45.4 54.2 92.2 50.5 45.5 35.2 45.1 55.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 52.2 45.9 53.6 91.1 51.3 46.6 32.2 44.8 59.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 33.6 45.7 52.6 90.3 50.3 45.7 35.6 45.5 56.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 56.6 71.2 68.4 90.6 47.3 43.4 60.3 73.2 87.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 40.2 35.4 45.9 90.2 50.3 46.0 26.2 35.2 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------