***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 4.7 4.9 -1.2 31.0 32.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.1 4.5 -1.2 30.2 32.3 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.2 4.7 -1.1 31.3 33.0 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -0.5 -0.4 2.2 -1.7 25.3 27.1 0.2 1.6 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.2 3.3 3.0 -1.4 29.0 30.5 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 4.2 2.9 1.1 -1.1 35.7 36.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 4.4 4.4 -1.3 29.4 31.7 4.6 5.7 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -1.4 -2.9 1.4 -0.9 35.9 37.1 -3.1 -1.9 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.1 3.6 -1.2 29.9 31.4 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.4 2.1 -1.1 33.2 34.5 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.1 2.6 -1.3 30.7 32.1 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.4 2.9 2.0 -1.1 33.3 34.5 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.3 3.8 1.9 -1.2 33.5 34.8 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 4.9 3.5 -1.2 30.9 32.4 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 4.6 4.7 3.6 -1.7 24.5 26.3 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.3 4.6 2.3 -1.3 31.6 32.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.5 4.5 4.1 -1.3 28.9 31.4 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.8 2.6 1.5 -1.0 34.1 35.3 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.2 4.5 -1.1 31.3 33.3 4.4 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.8 39.1 40.3 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.0 4.0 4.4 -1.3 29.2 30.9 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.0 4.0 4.2 -1.2 29.4 31.9 4.2 5.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.1 4.5 -1.0 32.3 33.9 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.2 3.2 -1.1 31.7 32.9 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.4 3.9 -1.3 31.5 33.1 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.0 3.7 1.5 -1.1 34.3 35.5 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.5 4.5 4.4 -1.2 32.0 33.8 4.6 6.0 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.6 2.7 2.7 -1.8 24.5 26.2 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.2 0.8 -0.9 35.6 36.8 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.3 4.6 4.7 -1.2 30.6 32.7 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------