***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 6.3 7.1 -0.2 45.8 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.0 7.2 0.1 52.6 51.5 4.7 5.9 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.0 7.1 0.0 50.7 50.6 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 1.0 2.1 5.2 -0.3 44.5 45.8 1.3 2.5 3.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.9 5.3 -0.1 47.4 47.8 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.0 4.2 3.6 0.0 50.5 49.8 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.1 7.1 0.1 51.0 50.3 5.0 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -2.9 -1.3 4.0 0.2 54.2 53.0 -2.7 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.7 5.8 0.0 49.1 49.4 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.9 4.6 0.1 51.6 51.2 4.7 5.8 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.6 4.9 0.0 49.5 49.3 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.3 4.6 0.1 52.7 51.9 3.1 4.2 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.3 4.1 0.1 51.4 50.6 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.5 6.0 0.4 57.0 55.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 5.3 6.1 5.5 -0.4 42.2 44.5 5.6 6.5 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 4.7 6.0 4.6 0.0 49.3 49.1 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.4 7.0 0.2 53.2 51.6 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.2 4.1 4.1 0.3 54.8 53.8 2.8 3.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 6.1 7.2 0.2 53.6 52.3 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 1.6 1.6 2.5 0.5 58.7 56.5 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 5.7 6.6 -0.1 48.2 49.0 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.7 7.1 0.3 54.9 52.6 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.9 7.0 0.3 55.0 53.4 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.8 5.7 0.2 54.5 53.5 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.7 5.8 -0.2 46.1 47.2 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.6 5.0 4.3 0.1 52.1 50.8 3.8 4.9 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 6.1 6.5 -0.2 46.1 47.1 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.6 4.6 5.3 -0.3 44.5 46.0 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 3.1 3.6 0.4 57.8 56.0 1.5 2.6 3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.2 7.2 0.1 51.0 50.4 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------