***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 6.4 7.0 -1.5 27.5 32.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 5.7 6.0 6.9 -1.3 29.4 34.4 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 7.8 8.0 6.8 -1.3 28.6 33.8 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.3 5.1 -1.3 26.4 33.1 2.8 4.2 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.7 4.8 5.0 -1.3 27.4 33.8 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.8 4.1 3.4 -1.0 30.9 37.1 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 6.1 6.3 6.8 -1.3 29.2 34.2 6.6 7.8 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.5 -1.3 3.5 -1.1 29.9 36.8 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 5.4 5.5 5.4 -1.3 27.9 33.7 5.8 6.8 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.7 5.8 4.1 -1.2 28.1 35.0 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 5.2 5.3 4.6 -1.2 28.4 35.0 5.5 6.5 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.1 4.3 -1.1 29.9 36.4 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 5.0 5.2 3.7 -1.1 29.4 35.7 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 6.1 6.3 5.5 -1.3 28.5 34.7 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 6.1 6.2 5.6 -1.2 26.1 32.7 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 6.1 6.3 4.3 -1.1 28.9 35.4 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 6.3 6.6 6.7 -1.3 29.4 34.4 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.8 3.8 3.5 -1.3 27.6 35.1 4.2 5.0 5.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.2 6.9 -1.2 29.5 34.5 6.5 7.6 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 0.9 1.0 1.8 -1.2 29.6 37.4 1.2 2.0 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 5.3 5.4 6.3 -1.4 27.7 33.2 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 5.6 5.8 6.7 -1.3 29.0 34.5 6.1 7.1 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 5.8 6.0 6.7 -1.2 29.6 34.8 6.2 7.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.5 5.7 5.2 -1.3 28.3 34.6 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 5.5 5.6 5.6 -1.4 26.5 32.4 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.0 5.2 3.9 -1.1 29.2 35.7 5.4 6.2 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.6 5.7 6.3 -1.5 26.9 32.5 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 4.2 4.3 5.3 -1.2 27.0 33.9 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.8 -1.3 28.0 36.1 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 6.0 6.2 6.9 -1.3 29.0 34.0 6.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------