***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 8.6 8.9 -0.3 44.0 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 7.8 8.8 8.6 -0.4 42.1 45.9 8.1 9.3 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.8 8.6 -0.3 43.6 47.2 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 5.3 6.7 -0.5 39.9 44.1 4.8 5.9 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.2 6.7 -0.4 41.2 45.4 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.0 4.9 -0.4 42.6 46.0 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.0 8.8 8.6 -0.4 41.3 45.4 8.2 9.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.3 5.1 -0.3 44.3 47.6 0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.1 7.1 -0.4 41.8 45.8 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.1 5.6 -0.4 41.5 45.7 7.7 8.5 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.7 6.2 -0.4 42.4 46.1 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.1 5.8 -0.3 43.9 47.2 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.0 5.3 -0.4 41.4 45.4 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.1 8.7 7.1 -0.4 41.5 46.0 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.7 7.1 -0.6 38.7 43.0 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.8 8.4 5.9 -0.4 41.7 45.5 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 8.5 9.2 8.4 -0.5 40.0 44.1 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.7 5.0 -0.5 40.0 45.0 5.3 6.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.1 8.9 8.6 -0.4 42.7 46.3 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.1 3.5 -0.3 44.8 48.5 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.1 8.1 -0.4 43.1 46.8 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.3 8.3 -0.5 40.4 44.1 8.0 8.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.8 8.6 8.3 -0.3 43.0 46.7 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 8.9 8.1 6.8 -0.4 40.9 45.7 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 7.7 8.6 7.4 -0.4 42.0 45.9 8.0 9.1 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.0 5.5 -0.4 42.5 46.2 6.5 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.0 8.2 -0.4 42.7 46.3 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 6.2 6.8 6.9 -0.5 39.8 43.8 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.5 4.4 -0.4 41.0 46.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.0 9.0 8.7 -0.4 42.8 46.5 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------