***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 6.2 7.0 -0.8 27.2 33.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 6.0 6.1 6.8 -0.7 30.1 35.2 6.3 7.1 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.2 6.8 -0.7 29.6 35.2 8.3 9.0 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.4 2.3 4.8 -0.9 22.5 29.4 2.8 3.5 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 4.8 4.9 5.0 -0.8 25.9 32.1 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.1 4.3 3.2 -0.6 33.0 37.1 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.3 6.7 -0.7 28.7 34.1 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.4 -1.1 3.5 -0.5 33.9 38.6 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 5.7 5.8 5.5 -0.7 27.4 33.3 6.0 6.6 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.8 5.9 4.1 -0.7 29.7 35.4 6.0 6.7 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 5.4 5.5 4.6 -0.7 28.3 34.0 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.2 -0.6 31.9 37.1 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 5.0 5.3 3.8 -0.6 30.7 36.0 5.3 5.9 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.5 5.5 -0.6 30.9 36.5 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 6.5 6.4 5.5 -1.0 21.9 28.3 6.8 7.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 6.1 6.3 4.2 -0.7 28.8 34.3 6.4 7.1 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 6.5 6.6 6.6 -0.7 29.1 34.4 6.7 7.4 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 3.8 4.0 3.5 -0.6 30.4 36.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 6.1 6.3 6.8 -0.6 31.2 36.3 6.4 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 1.0 1.4 1.9 -0.4 37.4 41.6 1.2 1.8 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 5.6 5.7 6.4 -0.8 27.1 33.1 6.0 6.7 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 5.8 5.9 6.6 -0.7 30.0 35.3 6.0 6.6 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.8 6.1 6.6 -0.6 32.2 37.3 6.1 6.8 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 5.6 5.8 5.2 -0.6 30.0 35.8 5.9 6.5 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 5.9 5.9 5.7 -0.8 26.3 32.4 6.3 7.0 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.0 5.2 3.8 -0.6 32.0 36.5 5.2 5.8 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 6.2 6.2 6.3 -0.8 27.1 33.1 6.6 7.4 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 4.7 4.6 5.1 -0.9 22.9 29.2 5.0 5.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 2.8 3.1 2.9 -0.6 33.2 38.6 3.1 3.8 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 6.4 6.5 6.9 -0.7 29.6 34.9 6.6 7.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------