***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 15.1 14.2 -1.1 35.0 37.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 16.6 15.3 14.2 -0.7 39.7 41.1 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.0 15.5 14.6 -0.8 38.9 40.6 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 7.4 7.5 11.7 -1.7 29.5 32.4 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.7 15.9 13.1 -1.2 35.8 37.9 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.2 14.7 10.8 -1.8 32.3 34.8 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.6 15.2 14.0 -0.8 38.1 39.7 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.0 11.7 -0.9 39.8 41.9 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.2 15.6 14.1 -1.0 37.8 39.7 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 17.2 15.8 12.7 -0.9 39.5 41.4 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.7 15.8 13.0 -1.2 36.0 38.3 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.7 15.0 12.3 -1.1 37.0 39.3 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 17.9 15.8 12.1 -1.5 34.1 36.4 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.7 15.8 14.1 -0.3 45.7 46.8 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 15.0 14.9 12.6 -2.3 22.9 26.4 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.2 16.0 12.5 -1.5 33.7 36.2 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.0 14.8 13.9 -0.6 40.5 41.9 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 16.5 15.4 12.1 -0.6 42.9 44.5 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.5 15.3 14.5 -0.6 41.2 42.5 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 10.8 9.9 -0.4 45.0 46.5 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.2 15.6 14.6 -1.0 37.4 39.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 16.6 15.6 14.2 -0.4 44.1 45.0 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 16.7 15.7 14.7 -0.5 42.8 44.0 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.6 15.6 13.8 -0.6 42.7 44.1 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.3 13.0 -1.3 32.9 35.2 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.3 15.1 11.1 -1.6 32.7 35.0 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 15.0 15.3 13.6 -1.1 34.3 36.3 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 15.2 15.2 12.3 -2.0 27.6 30.8 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 11.4 10.5 11.3 -0.4 44.7 46.2 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.6 15.2 14.4 -0.8 38.5 40.1 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------