***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 18.1 17.2 0.5 57.0 54.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.9 17.0 0.6 58.1 55.1 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.0 17.4 0.6 57.6 54.6 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.4 15.7 0.2 53.3 51.0 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.8 15.9 0.3 54.4 52.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.0 13.9 0.0 50.1 48.8 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.6 16.9 0.5 57.3 54.5 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.6 14.7 0.6 57.6 54.9 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.4 16.3 0.4 55.1 52.8 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.6 15.3 0.5 56.5 54.1 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.6 15.5 0.3 54.4 52.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.9 16.7 15.4 0.4 55.7 53.4 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 15.6 17.4 14.8 0.2 53.2 51.3 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 17.6 18.0 16.4 0.8 60.1 56.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.6 15.9 0.1 52.1 49.9 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.7 15.2 0.2 52.7 50.9 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.2 16.7 0.6 58.0 55.0 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.3 14.9 0.7 58.9 56.1 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.7 17.2 0.6 58.7 55.6 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.3 12.9 1.0 62.5 58.7 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.7 16.9 0.4 55.8 53.2 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 17.6 18.0 16.9 0.7 59.6 56.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 17.9 18.1 17.2 0.7 59.3 56.0 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.6 16.2 0.7 58.4 55.5 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.8 17.7 15.9 0.5 56.3 53.4 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.9 16.8 14.5 0.4 54.8 52.1 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.6 16.5 0.5 57.2 54.3 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 15.8 0.1 51.2 49.4 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.2 14.0 0.9 61.0 57.7 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.7 17.2 0.6 57.8 54.9 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------