***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 18.9 16.4 -1.5 32.5 37.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 17.7 18.2 16.2 -1.5 32.1 37.3 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 17.6 18.1 16.4 -1.5 32.6 37.9 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 9.9 10.3 14.8 -1.6 29.9 35.5 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 17.7 18.2 15.0 -1.6 31.4 37.0 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 16.2 16.8 13.3 -1.5 32.8 38.2 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 17.3 17.8 16.1 -1.5 32.0 37.1 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.6 6.2 13.6 -1.4 33.8 39.3 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 17.3 17.8 15.4 -1.6 32.1 37.6 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 17.3 18.0 14.3 -1.5 32.9 38.5 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 17.4 18.0 14.6 -1.5 32.4 37.9 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 16.6 17.3 14.5 -1.4 33.5 38.9 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 17.5 18.1 14.0 -1.4 33.2 38.6 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 17.6 18.3 15.2 -1.5 33.1 38.6 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 17.1 17.6 15.1 -1.6 29.2 34.4 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 17.9 18.5 14.4 -1.5 32.3 37.7 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 17.0 17.5 16.0 -1.5 32.1 37.2 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 16.9 17.5 13.6 -1.5 33.4 39.1 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 17.3 17.9 16.3 -1.5 32.4 37.7 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.7 11.6 -1.3 35.0 40.6 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 17.6 18.1 16.0 -1.5 32.1 37.5 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 17.6 18.2 16.1 -1.4 32.5 37.7 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 17.6 18.3 16.3 -1.4 32.9 38.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 17.3 17.9 15.1 -1.5 33.1 38.6 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 17.6 18.0 15.0 -1.5 31.2 36.4 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 16.9 17.6 13.9 -1.3 34.3 39.3 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 17.5 18.0 15.7 -1.5 32.2 37.2 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 17.3 17.8 15.0 -1.6 29.8 35.3 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.5 12.7 -1.4 33.9 39.6 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 17.3 17.8 16.3 -1.5 32.2 37.4 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------