***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 22.6 18.8 -0.1 48.8 50.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.9 18.5 -0.1 48.9 50.6 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.0 18.9 0.0 49.5 51.2 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.3 17.2 -0.3 46.2 48.8 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.8 17.4 -0.1 48.0 50.1 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.0 15.6 -0.2 47.8 49.7 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.5 18.4 -0.1 48.2 50.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.5 16.0 0.0 50.3 51.7 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.4 17.9 -0.1 48.9 50.7 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 21.9 21.4 16.7 0.0 50.0 51.5 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.5 17.0 -0.1 48.8 50.7 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.6 16.8 0.0 49.5 51.1 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 22.1 21.4 16.3 -0.1 48.7 50.6 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.5 22.0 17.6 0.1 51.6 52.5 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.4 17.4 -0.4 44.5 47.5 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.9 16.7 -0.1 48.2 50.2 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 21.8 21.1 18.2 -0.1 48.8 50.3 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.1 16.2 0.1 51.6 52.5 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.6 18.7 0.0 49.7 51.2 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.1 13.9 0.2 52.4 53.1 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.7 18.5 -0.1 48.8 50.6 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.8 18.4 0.0 50.0 51.0 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.0 18.7 0.1 50.7 51.9 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.0 21.5 17.6 0.1 51.0 52.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.6 17.4 -0.1 47.9 50.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 18.8 20.5 16.0 -0.1 48.5 50.2 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 20.2 21.6 18.0 -0.1 48.6 50.8 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.4 17.4 -0.3 45.4 48.1 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.1 15.2 0.2 52.5 53.2 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.7 18.7 -0.1 48.9 50.7 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------