***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 18.4 16.7 -0.5 38.6 40.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 17.7 18.4 16.5 -0.4 41.0 42.0 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 17.8 18.5 16.8 -0.4 40.6 41.9 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 10.3 10.7 14.8 -0.8 32.1 35.7 10.8 11.7 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 18.0 18.5 15.4 -0.7 36.4 39.0 18.3 19.2 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 16.5 17.0 13.4 -0.8 33.4 37.2 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 17.4 18.0 16.4 -0.5 39.8 41.0 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.3 14.0 -0.4 41.6 43.3 5.8 6.8 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 17.6 18.1 15.9 -0.6 38.3 40.4 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.2 14.8 -0.5 40.4 42.2 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 17.7 18.2 15.1 -0.6 37.2 39.8 18.0 18.9 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 16.8 17.4 14.7 -0.5 39.1 41.4 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 17.7 18.2 14.3 -0.7 36.2 39.2 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 17.6 18.5 15.8 -0.2 45.4 45.6 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 17.8 18.0 15.3 -1.0 28.3 32.8 18.2 18.9 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 18.0 18.5 14.7 -0.7 35.2 38.4 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.0 17.7 16.2 -0.4 41.2 42.1 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 17.1 17.9 14.2 -0.3 43.9 44.8 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 17.4 18.2 16.7 -0.4 42.2 43.0 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.0 12.1 -0.1 47.5 47.6 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 17.7 18.3 16.5 -0.5 38.5 40.4 18.0 18.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 17.6 18.4 16.4 -0.3 43.9 44.2 17.8 18.8 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 17.7 18.5 16.7 -0.3 43.6 44.1 18.0 18.9 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 17.4 18.2 15.7 -0.3 43.2 44.0 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 17.7 18.2 15.3 -0.6 36.0 38.4 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 17.0 17.5 13.9 -0.6 36.6 39.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 17.6 18.1 16.0 -0.5 38.0 39.8 17.9 18.7 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 17.8 18.1 15.1 -1.0 30.2 34.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.9 12.9 13.3 -0.2 46.2 46.5 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 17.4 18.1 16.6 -0.4 40.4 41.6 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------