***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 3.4 11.3 59.0 35.1 34.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.3 10.8 60.5 35.6 34.1 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.8 6.0 11.1 59.8 34.3 33.4 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.7 16.7 13.5 67.9 42.4 38.8 13.7 19.3 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.5 11.7 13.6 68.0 41.0 38.3 9.4 14.6 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.6 11.6 17.3 85.2 52.1 47.0 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 4.2 4.8 11.0 61.5 35.5 33.9 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 23.9 17.4 14.5 67.9 41.5 38.8 14.4 20.3 27.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.0 7.7 13.0 66.3 38.4 36.6 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.8 14.7 67.6 39.7 37.6 9.0 14.2 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.8 10.0 13.3 69.4 42.3 39.3 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 14.0 9.1 13.0 70.0 44.6 41.2 5.8 10.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.5 11.8 14.4 74.0 46.2 42.3 7.9 13.1 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 6.7 7.5 13.0 60.2 31.8 30.8 7.8 13.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 10.2 13.6 74.8 48.4 43.6 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.3 10.8 14.1 73.0 45.1 41.6 7.5 12.2 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.2 4.8 10.7 60.4 36.3 34.3 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 9.8 15.3 65.1 37.7 36.0 8.8 12.8 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.2 6.3 10.6 59.3 35.1 33.6 5.7 10.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.5 8.1 15.9 60.3 35.8 34.4 7.6 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.5 11.9 61.6 35.7 34.0 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.2 10.4 56.5 35.5 33.4 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.6 10.9 59.0 34.4 32.8 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.2 13.4 64.3 37.0 35.3 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.4 8.2 13.1 61.5 36.9 35.4 7.3 11.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.3 12.0 13.9 74.1 47.9 42.9 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.7 6.5 12.5 60.6 35.7 34.6 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 7.5 10.9 13.7 72.9 46.2 41.8 7.1 12.2 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.8 12.8 15.4 62.1 35.4 34.0 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.7 5.2 11.0 61.0 35.9 34.5 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------