***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 10.4 15.6 100.0 62.0 49.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.0 14.7 91.4 58.1 47.9 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.7 14.6 92.0 59.0 47.5 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 13.4 17.7 98.6 61.7 49.3 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.6 17.9 103.0 63.6 51.7 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.9 11.4 22.9 101.7 62.8 52.6 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.3 15.0 93.9 59.0 48.4 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.9 20.7 20.7 112.3 66.6 55.0 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.1 17.9 105.3 64.8 52.7 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.8 13.3 20.2 107.8 65.0 53.7 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.1 11.1 17.4 106.0 65.0 53.6 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.1 18.1 111.3 66.8 54.8 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 11.7 20.5 107.2 65.5 54.4 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.6 13.5 17.8 92.1 57.7 46.6 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.6 16.1 98.3 61.9 48.4 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.7 18.8 106.4 65.3 54.0 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.0 14.5 93.4 58.8 48.6 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 14.3 22.1 105.4 63.6 52.0 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.5 14.3 88.5 57.1 47.0 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.3 25.9 111.6 65.6 53.7 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.8 15.8 101.2 63.4 50.6 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.1 8.8 14.2 90.7 57.4 47.6 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.9 14.3 86.2 56.3 45.8 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.5 18.2 96.5 60.3 48.9 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.9 18.0 98.9 61.5 49.5 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.8 10.7 19.3 110.1 66.2 54.3 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.4 17.3 98.7 61.1 49.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.1 17.3 99.8 62.6 49.9 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.8 17.6 23.1 106.9 64.0 52.2 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.6 14.8 91.6 58.2 47.5 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------