***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 5.1 11.0 81.9 53.7 45.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.7 5.3 10.9 86.3 55.1 47.4 2.4 4.5 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.7 6.0 10.3 78.5 51.1 44.2 3.2 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 6.0 10.5 13.4 79.7 52.8 42.9 6.1 9.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.9 12.6 77.7 51.7 42.9 3.9 6.6 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.5 19.2 96.0 58.6 49.6 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.8 5.8 11.2 88.5 56.2 47.6 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.5 16.4 13.6 80.3 51.3 44.2 9.9 15.7 23.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.7 7.9 11.8 74.5 50.2 42.6 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.1 8.6 13.8 79.0 51.0 44.0 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.6 11.9 78.6 51.6 42.6 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.8 8.7 11.6 80.4 52.2 43.6 4.6 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 9.7 15.1 87.2 54.5 45.9 5.0 8.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.3 8.4 12.8 78.6 51.3 44.3 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 3.5 7.4 12.5 78.1 53.6 43.3 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 6.8 13.6 82.9 53.4 44.1 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.5 11.0 88.4 56.7 47.7 2.1 4.4 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.4 9.8 15.8 82.5 52.0 45.7 4.7 9.2 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.1 10.5 82.5 53.3 46.4 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.4 18.6 85.6 53.1 47.0 5.1 8.5 13.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.4 5.7 10.8 76.1 51.5 42.9 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.7 5.5 10.7 82.7 54.1 46.7 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.3 10.3 77.5 51.1 44.7 3.4 6.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.8 7.4 12.8 78.0 50.6 44.0 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.4 13.4 80.5 51.7 42.6 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.1 13.4 84.5 54.4 46.5 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.6 12.9 82.8 52.8 44.4 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.2 13.5 81.0 53.8 43.7 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 12.9 16.7 84.6 52.8 46.1 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.2 10.8 85.2 54.6 47.6 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------