***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 25.8 48.5 76.1 35.8 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 21.9 26.2 47.5 76.0 34.9 35.0 25.3 35.0 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 32.7 36.6 47.5 75.1 34.9 34.4 35.4 46.8 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 52.6 57.8 57.5 79.5 37.5 37.0 55.4 64.8 74.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 35.6 42.8 58.4 82.3 40.8 39.3 37.1 49.8 64.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 39.9 49.0 77.3 92.1 48.0 44.5 41.2 50.0 59.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 22.2 25.8 48.3 77.4 36.1 36.1 24.1 34.8 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 74.9 83.7 65.6 87.9 44.4 43.0 76.0 87.6 99.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 34.6 41.9 57.6 82.9 41.4 39.8 36.4 47.8 60.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 46.2 53.7 65.8 86.3 43.2 41.8 47.1 58.3 70.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 37.5 45.6 56.6 84.9 43.4 41.5 38.8 50.1 62.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 57.0 49.9 57.1 88.2 46.1 44.0 42.5 51.9 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 45.1 53.6 65.8 89.0 46.0 43.8 46.2 55.8 66.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 41.9 47.1 59.8 78.6 34.8 35.1 45.8 58.3 72.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 33.5 39.5 54.0 80.5 40.1 38.1 35.3 45.4 56.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 38.9 47.0 61.0 86.6 44.5 42.2 40.2 50.5 61.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 24.5 28.7 47.6 78.2 36.2 36.1 26.7 37.2 49.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 46.9 54.0 72.6 86.4 42.5 41.3 47.7 59.0 71.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 24.7 29.0 46.6 74.4 33.4 33.7 28.7 40.5 54.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 57.2 46.6 81.6 85.8 40.2 40.4 42.6 52.2 62.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 30.5 35.6 50.9 78.4 37.7 36.7 32.7 42.7 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 26.5 28.5 46.6 74.1 32.2 33.3 29.1 38.9 50.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 28.6 31.4 47.6 74.0 32.7 33.1 31.6 41.7 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 41.2 47.3 60.9 81.6 38.9 38.0 43.5 54.9 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 35.2 39.0 57.9 77.5 34.5 34.6 38.0 48.9 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 35.7 44.0 61.2 88.4 45.8 43.9 36.5 46.7 57.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 30.1 33.8 55.0 76.6 34.5 34.6 32.8 45.4 59.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 34.6 40.7 57.0 81.7 40.6 38.5 36.4 46.5 57.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 60.6 68.5 75.4 85.9 41.1 40.6 61.8 75.8 90.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 24.3 27.9 47.5 75.6 35.3 35.1 26.8 35.6 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------