***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 17.9 18.1 18.2 2.0 74.0 70.4 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 18.1 19.0 18.6 2.5 80.3 75.1 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.1 18.1 1.7 70.2 67.5 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.2 10.7 14.1 0.9 61.0 59.9 7.9 9.6 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.6 17.8 15.4 0.7 58.1 57.7 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 16.8 16.6 12.8 0.1 51.5 51.6 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 17.9 18.9 18.6 2.7 81.8 76.1 14.8 16.1 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 5.2 4.9 12.8 0.0 50.5 50.8 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.4 16.5 0.8 59.7 59.2 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.1 17.1 14.3 0.4 54.8 54.7 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.6 15.6 0.5 55.9 55.7 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.5 13.9 0.3 53.8 53.8 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 17.7 17.7 14.8 0.3 54.0 53.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.8 16.1 0.5 56.4 56.5 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 18.6 18.3 16.8 1.2 65.9 63.6 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 18.0 18.0 14.8 0.4 55.2 55.0 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 17.4 18.3 18.3 2.7 81.9 76.4 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.1 13.3 0.1 51.1 51.5 14.5 16.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 18.0 18.5 18.4 2.3 77.4 73.1 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 11.6 11.0 10.8 -0.2 47.8 48.2 9.7 11.2 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 18.2 17.5 17.3 0.9 61.0 60.3 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 18.0 18.2 17.8 2.0 74.6 70.8 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 18.1 18.4 18.2 1.9 73.7 70.4 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.7 16.7 16.0 0.6 56.5 56.4 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 18.2 17.8 16.4 1.2 64.8 63.1 15.3 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 17.0 16.9 12.7 0.2 53.1 53.0 15.1 16.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.3 17.4 1.7 70.7 67.7 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.7 18.1 15.1 0.8 60.2 59.1 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 11.3 10.9 12.5 0.0 49.5 50.0 9.4 10.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 17.9 18.6 18.5 2.4 78.4 73.7 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------