***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 19.1 18.5 18.6 1.1 62.1 58.8 16.2 17.6 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 18.8 18.5 18.7 1.4 65.6 60.7 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.7 18.2 18.6 0.9 59.9 57.3 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.3 10.5 15.3 0.4 55.2 53.4 8.7 10.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.6 16.1 0.1 50.8 50.8 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.8 13.7 -0.3 46.2 46.9 14.8 16.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 18.7 18.2 18.7 1.4 65.7 60.6 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.6 13.9 -0.5 45.2 46.8 3.6 5.0 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.1 16.9 0.1 51.3 51.4 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.9 15.1 -0.2 48.0 48.9 15.7 17.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.2 16.2 -0.1 49.4 49.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 14.5 16.1 15.0 -0.2 48.0 48.6 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.1 15.2 -0.1 48.8 49.0 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.1 16.4 -0.2 48.5 49.8 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 18.9 18.2 17.5 0.9 61.4 57.2 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.5 15.6 0.0 49.9 49.8 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.9 18.4 1.4 65.8 60.6 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.2 16.2 14.2 -0.5 45.4 47.2 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 18.6 18.2 18.7 1.3 64.1 59.9 15.6 17.0 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.7 11.6 -0.8 42.1 44.8 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.4 17.7 0.2 52.7 52.4 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 15.6 18.1 18.1 1.0 61.0 57.7 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.7 18.3 18.6 1.0 61.4 58.3 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.9 16.4 -0.1 49.0 50.0 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.7 16.8 0.5 55.7 54.3 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 14.8 16.6 14.4 0.2 52.7 51.5 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.4 17.8 17.7 0.8 59.0 56.6 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 15.7 17.8 16.1 0.5 56.0 53.8 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.8 13.3 -0.7 43.4 46.0 9.9 11.3 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 18.8 18.3 18.7 1.3 64.6 60.2 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------