***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 21.5 21.4 19.1 1.4 68.5 61.1 18.4 19.8 21.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 21.7 22.1 19.4 1.9 73.8 64.2 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 21.6 21.4 19.4 1.4 67.9 60.9 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.3 13.8 16.7 1.1 64.6 58.8 10.7 12.3 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.7 20.8 16.9 0.7 58.3 55.3 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 16.4 19.4 15.1 0.9 60.2 56.6 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 21.3 21.6 19.3 1.8 73.0 63.5 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 8.2 15.3 0.6 56.4 54.2 6.2 7.7 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 17.7 20.3 17.2 0.7 58.0 55.3 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 17.7 20.2 16.0 0.6 56.9 54.5 18.0 19.5 21.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 17.8 20.6 16.8 0.7 58.8 55.6 18.1 19.7 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 19.6 19.7 16.4 0.8 59.2 55.9 17.2 18.9 20.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 17.8 20.6 15.6 0.7 58.7 55.4 18.1 19.8 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 17.8 20.4 16.9 0.5 55.6 53.9 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 21.2 21.6 18.1 1.8 73.4 64.1 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 18.3 21.2 16.4 0.9 60.6 56.5 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 20.9 21.2 19.2 1.9 73.2 63.8 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 17.0 19.5 15.5 0.4 54.7 53.1 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 21.3 21.6 19.4 1.8 72.2 63.4 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.1 14.3 12.6 0.2 51.8 51.1 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 17.8 20.7 18.1 0.8 59.9 56.3 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 21.8 21.7 18.8 1.5 69.0 61.6 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 21.8 21.6 19.2 1.5 68.1 61.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 17.5 20.2 17.0 0.6 57.3 54.7 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 17.7 20.8 17.1 1.0 62.7 57.6 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 19.6 20.3 15.9 1.2 64.9 58.9 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 17.7 20.9 18.2 1.2 65.5 59.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 21.4 21.3 17.2 1.4 67.8 60.8 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 12.0 14.4 14.4 0.2 52.5 51.7 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 21.4 21.7 19.4 1.8 72.8 63.6 17.9 19.5 21.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------