***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 23.8 23.8 20.1 1.5 68.2 62.1 21.0 22.3 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 23.6 23.9 20.2 1.9 72.7 66.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.5 20.2 1.5 67.0 61.4 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.8 17.6 1.1 63.7 58.1 13.2 14.6 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.6 17.8 0.7 58.3 55.0 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.9 15.8 0.7 57.8 54.3 18.7 20.2 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 23.1 23.5 20.2 1.9 72.6 66.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.9 16.0 0.4 54.5 52.8 7.9 9.5 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 22.0 22.2 18.1 0.7 58.4 55.3 20.1 21.5 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 21.9 21.9 16.9 0.6 56.3 54.1 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.1 22.2 17.6 0.7 58.2 55.0 20.2 21.6 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.3 17.2 0.7 57.6 54.7 19.2 20.7 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.1 22.1 16.5 0.6 57.4 54.2 20.0 21.5 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.4 17.8 0.6 57.0 55.3 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 23.0 23.3 18.9 1.6 71.0 62.8 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 22.6 22.8 17.3 0.8 59.3 55.5 20.6 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 22.8 23.1 20.0 1.9 72.3 66.4 19.8 21.2 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 21.5 21.3 16.3 0.4 54.5 53.2 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.4 20.2 1.8 70.9 64.9 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.5 15.9 13.4 0.0 49.9 49.9 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.7 19.1 0.9 60.5 56.7 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.4 19.6 1.6 68.3 63.9 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 23.5 23.4 20.0 1.5 67.3 62.4 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.0 17.9 0.7 57.7 55.4 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.8 18.1 1.1 63.2 58.4 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.7 16.6 1.1 62.4 57.8 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.8 19.1 1.3 65.6 60.5 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.3 23.0 18.0 1.3 65.7 59.4 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.1 15.2 0.2 52.3 51.8 14.4 15.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 23.3 23.6 20.2 1.8 71.7 65.1 20.5 21.8 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------