***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 19.8 20.2 19.0 1.5 76.9 68.8 18.2 18.9 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 19.9 20.7 19.3 1.9 82.7 73.5 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 19.9 20.2 19.1 1.4 74.0 66.7 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.6 15.9 0.9 66.8 61.0 10.8 11.7 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 18.1 19.6 16.6 0.5 59.9 56.4 18.3 19.2 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 16.7 18.1 14.4 0.3 56.1 54.2 16.9 17.8 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 19.5 20.4 19.2 1.9 82.9 73.5 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.9 14.5 0.1 52.4 51.3 5.8 6.8 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 17.6 19.2 17.2 0.6 60.8 57.1 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 17.6 19.0 15.6 0.3 56.2 53.9 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 17.8 19.3 16.5 0.5 58.7 55.5 18.0 18.9 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 16.9 18.4 15.6 0.4 57.2 54.6 17.1 18.0 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.3 15.5 0.4 57.4 54.7 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 19.2 19.1 16.8 0.4 56.5 54.3 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 19.8 20.1 17.8 1.4 76.2 67.6 18.2 18.9 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 18.2 19.8 16.0 0.5 59.8 56.3 18.4 19.3 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 19.2 20.0 19.0 2.0 82.7 73.8 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 17.2 18.3 14.8 0.1 52.0 51.1 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 19.6 20.3 19.2 1.8 80.4 71.7 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 12.0 13.0 12.1 -0.2 46.5 47.0 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 19.8 19.5 18.1 0.7 63.2 58.7 18.0 18.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 19.9 20.3 18.6 1.5 76.3 68.7 17.8 18.8 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 20.0 20.3 19.0 1.5 75.9 68.2 18.0 18.9 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.9 18.9 16.8 0.4 57.9 55.2 17.6 18.5 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 19.7 19.7 17.1 0.9 67.6 61.5 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 17.2 18.8 14.9 0.7 62.7 58.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 19.6 19.8 18.1 1.2 72.7 65.6 17.9 18.7 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 19.9 19.9 16.6 1.0 68.6 62.4 18.2 19.0 19.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.0 13.8 -0.1 48.9 48.9 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 19.7 20.5 19.2 1.8 81.4 72.2 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------