***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 17.3 16.9 16.3 115.9 68.5 60.9 5.6 9.9 15.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.1 13.3 13.0 102.3 63.5 56.5 4.8 8.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 11.9 16.0 15.4 111.5 67.1 59.8 5.7 9.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 28.5 32.6 26.0 152.1 78.2 71.2 13.7 19.3 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 23.9 28.8 23.7 151.5 78.3 70.9 9.4 14.6 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 21.2 28.8 29.7 183.7 85.7 80.7 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 9.9 12.1 12.6 99.4 62.3 55.4 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 31.2 39.3 30.2 175.4 83.9 77.5 14.4 20.3 27.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 19.2 23.0 22.2 147.1 77.3 70.0 6.5 11.0 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 24.5 31.3 28.4 166.9 82.0 75.2 9.0 14.2 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 22.2 29.1 25.7 164.4 81.1 73.7 7.4 12.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 22.7 33.1 28.1 185.0 85.3 78.8 5.8 10.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 24.3 35.2 31.6 192.0 86.0 79.6 7.9 13.1 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 15.9 23.7 20.7 124.1 70.8 63.8 7.8 13.5 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 20.0 25.1 24.9 166.1 80.6 73.0 6.2 10.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 22.2 28.7 27.1 172.1 82.5 76.0 7.5 12.2 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.1 11.4 93.4 59.9 53.8 4.2 8.0 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 21.1 26.4 29.2 172.5 83.7 78.2 8.8 12.8 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.8 17.4 13.7 106.0 65.0 57.5 5.7 10.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 20.6 24.9 30.4 162.7 81.7 77.1 7.6 11.7 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 12.7 18.3 18.6 124.8 70.9 64.0 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 11.5 13.7 12.8 99.4 62.4 56.5 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.1 16.9 14.4 107.6 65.6 58.7 6.3 10.9 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 18.9 21.5 22.1 140.6 74.9 68.6 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 18.7 20.3 21.4 132.4 73.4 65.2 7.3 11.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 22.2 32.4 32.6 201.5 87.7 81.7 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 18.5 19.6 18.5 125.1 71.2 62.7 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 22.9 29.9 27.5 172.2 82.1 75.1 7.1 12.2 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 30.7 38.1 29.5 171.0 83.4 78.2 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 10.2 13.7 14.1 109.2 66.2 58.8 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------