***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.3 11.7 12.1 79.4 53.5 43.9 6.3 10.5 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.2 11.6 83.4 55.9 45.2 5.0 8.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 8.0 13.4 12.4 81.0 53.2 43.5 8.1 12.5 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 10.1 16.5 13.1 81.6 53.8 42.0 11.0 15.5 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.1 14.4 13.1 84.1 55.2 44.3 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.9 14.0 15.8 90.6 57.1 46.7 7.9 12.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.8 11.4 83.0 56.0 44.8 3.9 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.1 25.8 14.1 88.6 56.1 45.4 16.5 23.2 30.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 7.8 14.1 14.0 86.5 55.5 45.9 7.5 12.3 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.4 16.3 14.6 86.3 55.3 45.8 9.2 14.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.3 14.0 13.4 86.7 56.1 45.6 7.0 11.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.1 14.7 12.8 87.2 55.3 43.9 9.6 13.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 9.6 16.6 14.4 88.4 57.1 46.0 9.8 14.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 8.9 17.0 18.0 94.4 59.6 49.3 8.6 13.6 19.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 5.5 11.9 12.5 84.3 56.3 41.6 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 7.5 15.3 14.4 90.8 57.5 45.6 7.6 12.7 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.4 8.4 11.0 80.8 55.0 44.7 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.5 16.0 89.7 56.9 47.6 10.1 15.1 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.2 11.9 82.4 55.1 44.8 4.9 8.1 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.2 15.3 16.7 92.7 57.5 47.4 9.1 13.2 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.4 13.0 13.5 84.8 55.2 45.6 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.7 11.4 79.3 54.2 43.8 4.5 7.8 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.7 10.4 12.8 83.2 55.1 45.0 5.6 9.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.5 17.0 15.5 88.1 56.2 47.1 9.1 14.5 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.5 11.9 13.3 77.0 51.5 41.9 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.1 10.4 13.1 84.7 52.8 42.4 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.3 11.2 12.7 77.0 51.9 42.8 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.0 11.7 12.7 82.2 54.6 41.2 6.4 10.4 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.8 17.4 95.8 59.4 48.8 13.4 19.2 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.0 11.4 80.2 53.9 43.0 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------