***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.3 15.9 96.7 61.1 48.8 6.4 10.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.5 13.7 94.3 59.8 46.6 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.6 13.0 15.8 101.1 62.7 50.7 4.7 8.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.2 15.8 81.6 54.5 45.3 6.2 10.0 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.9 10.0 16.6 91.1 58.3 49.6 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.1 16.0 79.2 50.4 45.0 4.6 8.0 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.2 13.4 92.6 58.9 45.6 4.0 7.1 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.3 16.4 16.8 89.3 56.4 48.7 9.0 14.1 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.5 8.6 17.5 94.7 59.7 50.3 3.2 6.3 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.5 18.2 90.6 57.3 49.0 4.4 8.3 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 8.8 15.3 89.3 57.3 49.2 3.8 7.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.0 15.2 89.9 56.9 48.2 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.7 17.6 89.5 56.0 48.2 3.9 7.3 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 14.2 20.1 96.1 59.9 48.0 6.5 11.0 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.7 12.7 69.0 49.9 40.2 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.8 8.6 15.9 86.5 55.4 47.6 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.5 12.6 89.0 57.2 43.3 4.1 7.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.6 19.8 95.4 59.1 49.8 5.6 9.8 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.9 14.7 98.4 61.6 48.3 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.4 11.0 20.1 95.6 58.4 49.8 5.1 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.3 16.6 97.4 61.3 50.6 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.1 14.0 92.3 58.8 45.3 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.6 16.2 102.5 63.1 49.4 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.6 12.7 18.6 97.8 60.9 50.4 5.5 9.4 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.3 17.6 92.9 59.5 48.3 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.9 7.4 14.9 82.2 53.1 45.7 3.9 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.1 17.0 95.3 60.4 48.5 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.4 14.3 75.2 51.7 43.2 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 15.5 20.1 97.1 59.6 50.0 6.5 11.7 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.4 14.5 96.7 60.9 47.9 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------