***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 49.3 44.4 59.5 92.6 50.8 48.0 32.8 43.7 56.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 24.4 33.9 51.3 89.7 48.1 44.7 25.3 35.0 46.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 52.8 48.4 58.7 94.2 51.9 49.1 35.4 46.8 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 69.0 68.9 72.5 100.4 56.8 52.0 55.4 64.8 74.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 55.0 57.8 70.6 103.8 59.5 55.1 37.1 49.8 64.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 54.0 57.6 79.8 108.6 63.3 56.7 41.2 50.0 59.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.0 31.9 49.9 87.2 45.8 42.5 24.1 34.8 47.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 92.3 101.7 81.0 114.9 68.5 61.5 76.0 87.6 99.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 52.7 54.3 71.2 103.1 58.8 54.9 36.4 47.8 60.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 63.3 68.6 81.4 109.2 63.8 58.4 47.1 58.3 70.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 55.0 60.0 71.0 108.8 63.3 57.6 38.8 50.1 62.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 55.7 63.8 72.5 115.3 68.3 60.8 42.5 51.9 62.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 60.0 67.7 81.1 114.5 67.6 59.8 46.2 55.8 66.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 64.9 63.4 78.8 100.2 56.3 52.0 45.8 58.3 72.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 50.4 49.0 65.0 97.9 55.6 49.1 35.3 45.4 56.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 54.9 60.0 74.3 109.4 63.7 57.1 40.2 50.5 61.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 25.3 33.9 47.8 85.6 44.8 41.9 26.7 37.2 49.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 64.4 71.3 86.6 111.6 65.7 59.9 47.7 59.0 71.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 28.4 40.8 54.1 92.5 50.5 46.9 28.7 40.5 54.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 56.8 64.1 90.0 114.8 68.4 61.5 42.6 52.2 62.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 47.3 45.6 64.9 97.8 54.8 51.7 32.7 42.7 53.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 28.5 38.1 52.8 89.9 48.8 44.4 29.1 38.9 50.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 31.3 43.3 58.3 94.9 52.5 48.9 31.6 41.7 53.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 60.6 61.5 75.2 103.1 58.7 54.7 43.5 54.9 67.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 54.7 50.6 69.3 95.3 52.6 49.4 38.0 48.9 61.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 50.9 60.8 78.0 117.2 69.7 61.4 36.5 46.7 57.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 52.1 46.5 64.2 93.6 51.2 48.1 32.8 45.4 59.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 51.1 52.2 71.4 102.6 58.8 52.6 36.4 46.5 57.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 82.2 93.1 88.9 114.9 68.5 61.2 61.8 75.8 90.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 26.2 35.2 53.7 91.3 49.3 45.9 26.8 35.6 45.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------