***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.5 10.5 4.2 95.9 94.8 4.6 5.8 6.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.4 10.3 10.0 4.0 96.9 96.0 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.3 11.5 10.2 3.7 95.0 93.9 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 3.6 5.0 6.8 3.0 88.6 86.8 0.3 1.5 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 6.7 8.3 8.1 3.4 91.1 89.9 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 5.9 7.0 5.1 3.2 88.2 87.4 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.4 10.0 4.0 96.4 95.3 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.6 4.9 3.2 89.3 88.4 -3.1 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.2 9.0 7.9 3.3 93.1 91.9 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.2 8.3 5.9 3.1 89.4 88.5 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 7.1 8.2 7.0 2.9 88.3 87.4 4.2 5.2 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 6.0 7.1 6.0 3.1 88.7 87.9 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 6.9 7.6 5.8 2.6 84.6 84.0 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 7.5 8.3 6.9 2.7 87.5 86.5 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 7.6 8.4 7.7 2.5 86.4 84.4 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 7.7 8.6 6.5 2.8 86.9 85.9 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.5 10.0 9.6 3.9 96.8 95.8 4.6 5.7 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 5.3 6.1 5.2 3.0 86.8 86.2 2.6 3.6 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.4 10.3 9.8 3.9 96.9 96.0 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 2.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 89.7 89.1 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.7 9.7 9.3 3.4 93.2 92.0 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 6.7 9.0 9.4 3.6 96.4 95.5 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.1 9.8 9.4 3.7 96.5 95.5 4.0 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.0 8.0 7.3 3.0 89.4 88.6 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.0 9.7 4.1 94.4 93.2 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.7 7.8 5.6 3.2 88.4 87.9 3.6 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.4 11.2 10.3 4.3 95.3 94.1 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 6.3 7.2 7.0 2.7 85.3 83.6 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 4.1 5.1 4.4 3.1 87.8 87.0 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.8 10.7 10.3 4.1 96.8 95.8 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------