***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 7 93 100 18.2 20.7 19.6 4.0 93.4 91.0 14.6 16.0 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 18.5 21.6 19.6 4.2 95.1 93.2 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 18.6 21.3 20.1 4.4 94.4 92.2 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 11.7 12.9 15.9 3.1 84.6 81.0 7.9 9.4 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 19.2 21.2 18.3 4.2 91.6 88.2 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 18.6 21.3 17.4 5.2 93.9 90.9 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 18.3 21.5 19.7 4.3 96.0 94.2 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 7.2 10.0 17.1 5.0 95.0 92.4 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 18.6 21.0 19.3 4.4 93.2 90.1 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 18.8 21.4 18.1 4.9 94.3 91.4 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 19.2 21.8 19.2 4.8 93.9 90.8 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 18.5 21.6 18.0 4.9 95.3 92.8 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 19.7 22.9 19.2 5.3 96.0 94.0 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 18.6 21.7 19.6 4.9 95.4 93.3 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 18.6 19.7 18.2 3.0 85.2 81.7 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 19.7 22.5 18.7 4.9 94.6 91.6 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 17.8 20.9 19.3 4.3 95.8 94.0 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 18.3 21.1 17.4 5.0 94.5 92.1 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 18.4 21.5 19.8 4.3 95.3 93.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 13.7 16.9 15.3 5.1 95.7 93.6 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 18.6 21.1 20.1 4.4 93.5 90.5 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 18.5 21.8 19.5 4.4 95.8 94.0 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 1 99 100 18.6 21.9 20.2 4.7 95.9 94.0 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 18.4 21.2 19.4 4.9 94.8 92.5 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 18.5 20.4 18.6 4.0 91.8 88.9 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 18.9 21.9 17.1 5.0 95.6 93.6 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 18.6 21.1 19.3 4.2 94.1 91.8 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 18.9 20.0 17.0 3.2 84.8 81.2 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 13.3 16.5 16.8 5.1 95.4 93.1 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 18.4 21.3 19.7 4.2 95.1 93.2 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------