***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.9 17.6 0.9 63.1 59.0 16.5 17.9 19.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 19.3 18.8 17.5 0.9 63.4 60.0 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.8 17.8 0.9 62.7 58.8 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.2 14.8 0.7 60.0 56.3 9.2 10.5 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.7 16.1 0.9 61.9 57.6 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 16.9 17.3 14.1 1.1 63.4 59.1 15.2 16.4 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 18.9 18.5 17.4 1.0 64.0 60.5 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.9 6.3 14.3 1.0 63.1 58.9 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.8 18.3 16.8 0.9 62.4 58.1 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.2 15.3 1.0 62.3 58.2 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.4 16.1 0.9 61.7 57.6 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.0 17.6 15.2 1.1 63.9 59.4 15.2 16.5 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.0 18.7 15.5 1.2 65.2 60.4 16.1 17.5 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.5 16.7 1.0 62.5 59.0 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 16.3 18.3 16.3 0.6 58.3 55.1 16.5 17.7 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.9 15.6 1.0 62.9 58.6 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 18.6 18.1 17.2 0.9 63.2 60.2 15.6 17.0 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.9 14.7 1.0 62.6 58.6 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.6 17.6 1.0 63.6 60.0 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.6 12.4 1.1 63.4 59.4 10.2 11.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.5 17.5 0.9 62.4 58.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 19.3 18.8 17.2 0.9 62.5 59.7 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.9 17.7 1.0 64.2 60.2 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.8 18.2 16.6 1.0 62.1 58.4 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.1 18.6 16.4 0.9 62.8 58.4 16.2 17.6 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.3 18.0 14.5 1.3 67.4 61.8 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.0 18.6 17.1 1.0 64.4 59.9 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.3 15.4 0.6 58.7 55.5 16.5 17.7 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.7 14.0 1.1 62.9 58.9 10.3 11.6 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 19.1 18.6 17.6 1.0 63.5 59.9 16.0 17.4 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------