***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 20.7 20.0 17.8 -0.2 47.4 48.4 18.8 20.2 21.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 20.7 19.7 17.5 -0.3 45.5 47.0 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.6 19.8 18.1 -0.1 48.2 49.2 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.3 15.7 -0.2 47.6 48.9 10.8 12.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 20.9 20.1 16.4 -0.1 48.5 49.8 18.7 20.3 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 19.1 18.4 14.5 -0.1 49.3 50.6 16.8 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 20.3 19.2 17.4 -0.5 44.0 45.7 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.8 14.9 0.0 50.0 51.2 6.2 7.8 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 20.4 19.7 16.8 0.0 49.5 50.7 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.8 15.7 0.0 50.0 51.3 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 20.7 19.9 16.2 -0.1 49.3 50.7 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.1 15.8 0.0 50.3 51.4 17.4 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 20.6 19.9 15.1 0.0 49.8 51.0 18.3 19.9 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.8 20.1 16.6 0.0 49.5 50.4 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 18.0 19.6 16.5 -0.1 49.1 49.7 18.2 19.7 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 21.1 20.3 15.8 -0.1 49.0 50.4 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 20.0 18.8 17.2 -0.5 43.6 45.4 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.9 19.3 15.3 0.0 50.1 51.3 17.7 19.3 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.5 17.8 -0.2 47.2 48.4 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.2 12.6 -0.1 49.3 50.6 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.6 19.9 17.6 -0.1 48.8 49.8 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.7 19.7 17.3 -0.3 45.5 46.9 18.5 20.1 21.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.8 20.1 18.0 -0.1 49.3 50.1 18.5 20.1 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.6 16.7 0.0 49.5 50.7 18.1 19.7 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.7 16.3 -0.2 47.9 48.8 18.4 19.9 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.2 15.0 0.2 52.0 52.4 17.5 19.1 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 20.4 19.5 17.1 -0.2 47.3 48.3 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 20.5 19.6 15.9 -0.2 48.0 49.2 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.0 14.3 14.4 0.0 49.9 51.2 12.7 14.3 15.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 20.4 19.4 17.6 -0.3 46.0 47.4 18.2 19.8 21.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------