***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.8 22.0 18.5 -0.3 45.2 44.8 21.1 22.4 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 20.3 21.7 18.3 -0.4 44.4 44.3 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 20.7 22.0 18.8 -0.3 45.8 45.3 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.3 16.3 -0.4 44.3 44.3 13.5 14.7 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 22.7 21.9 17.0 -0.3 46.2 45.9 20.9 22.2 23.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.1 14.9 -0.4 45.7 45.7 19.0 20.4 21.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 20.1 21.4 18.3 -0.4 43.8 44.0 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.4 15.4 -0.3 46.6 46.6 8.1 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 22.3 21.5 17.4 -0.2 47.1 46.7 20.4 21.7 22.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.1 21.4 16.2 -0.2 47.3 47.0 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 22.3 21.5 16.9 -0.2 47.3 46.9 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.3 20.6 16.4 -0.2 46.9 46.8 19.5 20.8 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.4 15.7 -0.2 46.9 46.6 20.3 21.6 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.7 17.2 -0.2 47.5 46.8 20.6 21.9 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 20.5 21.4 17.1 -0.5 43.5 43.7 20.7 21.9 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 22.7 21.9 16.4 -0.2 47.1 46.7 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.6 20.9 18.1 -0.4 43.8 44.0 20.0 21.4 22.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.6 20.9 15.8 -0.3 47.0 46.7 19.8 21.1 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.4 18.5 -0.3 45.7 45.2 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.7 15.7 13.1 -0.4 45.3 45.9 14.6 16.1 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.7 18.2 -0.3 45.9 45.5 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 20.1 21.5 18.1 -0.3 45.4 45.0 20.5 21.9 23.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.3 21.8 18.6 -0.2 47.7 46.6 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.4 17.2 -0.2 47.3 46.7 20.4 21.6 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.6 16.9 -0.4 44.8 44.5 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.6 15.4 -0.3 46.6 46.7 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.6 17.8 -0.3 45.6 45.1 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 22.4 21.5 16.6 -0.4 44.5 44.6 20.7 21.9 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.7 14.8 -0.3 46.2 46.2 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 20.3 21.6 18.4 -0.4 44.6 44.4 20.7 22.0 23.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------