***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.3 18.4 1.1 74.7 68.8 18.3 19.1 19.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.3 18.2 1.1 74.6 69.1 18.1 19.0 19.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.5 18.7 1.2 76.4 70.1 18.2 19.0 19.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.8 12.7 15.7 0.8 67.8 62.9 10.9 11.8 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 20.2 20.5 16.9 1.2 74.3 68.1 18.4 19.3 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.3 15.2 1.5 77.5 70.7 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 19.8 20.0 18.2 1.1 74.8 69.3 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.5 15.4 1.4 78.4 71.7 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 19.8 20.2 17.6 1.3 76.1 69.6 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 19.8 20.2 16.3 1.4 77.7 71.1 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 20.1 20.5 17.1 1.4 77.1 70.4 18.1 19.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.6 16.3 1.4 79.0 72.2 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 20.2 20.7 16.4 1.5 80.4 73.5 18.2 19.0 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 20.1 20.5 17.5 1.4 78.1 71.8 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 19.8 19.8 17.0 0.8 67.4 62.6 18.3 19.0 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 20.6 21.0 16.6 1.4 77.8 71.0 18.5 19.4 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 19.4 19.6 17.9 1.1 74.1 68.9 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 19.4 19.8 15.8 1.4 77.5 71.1 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 19.8 20.2 18.4 1.2 76.4 70.3 17.8 18.7 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.9 13.4 1.4 77.9 71.6 12.3 13.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 20.0 20.3 18.3 1.2 75.9 69.6 18.1 19.0 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.4 18.0 1.1 75.4 69.9 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 20.2 20.7 18.6 1.4 79.0 72.4 18.1 19.0 19.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 19.7 20.1 17.5 1.4 77.5 71.2 17.7 18.6 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 20.0 20.2 17.0 1.1 74.1 68.2 18.2 19.0 19.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 19.3 19.9 15.5 1.6 81.2 74.3 17.5 18.3 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 19.9 20.2 17.8 1.2 76.1 70.1 18.0 18.8 19.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 19.9 19.9 16.2 0.8 67.6 62.8 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.8 15.0 1.5 78.1 71.6 12.2 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 19.9 20.2 18.3 1.1 75.3 69.4 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------