***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.9 12.4 13.3 86.9 56.8 47.4 5.5 10.1 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.9 12.8 91.4 58.3 50.6 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.5 12.8 12.8 86.8 56.2 48.6 6.3 10.8 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.1 14.9 86.7 56.0 49.7 13.0 18.9 25.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.7 14.3 11.9 72.8 49.3 43.5 9.4 14.5 20.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.3 10.8 62.5 39.9 36.3 8.5 13.3 19.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.5 12.7 93.1 58.9 49.9 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.2 19.5 12.8 67.7 44.1 39.4 15.7 21.8 28.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.8 11.7 12.7 78.4 51.8 45.6 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 14.2 13.5 72.9 47.6 42.2 9.7 14.9 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 8.4 13.3 11.9 72.8 48.7 41.8 8.6 13.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.8 11.3 11.5 70.5 46.2 40.5 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 8.2 10.4 10.3 58.2 40.3 35.7 8.2 13.7 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.1 12.1 12.6 65.3 43.8 38.6 8.7 14.4 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.3 12.4 85.4 56.7 49.4 5.4 10.1 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 8.4 11.4 10.6 64.6 43.9 38.3 8.3 13.4 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.5 12.7 94.1 59.2 52.0 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 9.5 12.7 14.0 71.5 45.7 41.0 9.6 13.8 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.3 12.4 12.2 85.8 55.7 48.9 5.6 10.4 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.6 12.0 54.8 35.9 33.1 7.9 12.0 17.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 13.9 12.4 12.6 80.0 53.2 46.5 7.2 11.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.3 11.4 82.0 54.0 48.2 4.5 8.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 13.7 11.0 11.3 76.1 50.6 44.9 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.5 10.7 12.8 71.6 47.3 41.9 7.0 11.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 7.8 12.6 13.0 74.2 51.1 43.6 7.6 12.2 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 15.9 11.6 10.9 66.9 44.3 40.1 8.7 13.3 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.6 14.0 13.2 82.5 54.9 45.9 7.1 12.3 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.7 13.5 12.5 79.8 52.4 46.6 7.6 12.7 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 11.9 15.4 12.7 62.5 40.5 36.1 12.8 19.1 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.5 12.5 89.3 57.3 49.3 4.5 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------