***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.2 17.2 112.1 66.4 55.1 4.8 9.1 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.9 14.6 110.3 65.8 56.6 4.2 7.6 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.6 18.3 17.2 112.1 66.3 56.5 6.8 11.6 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.3 22.1 19.6 116.8 68.4 59.2 11.7 16.2 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.8 20.0 19.0 114.1 67.3 58.2 8.2 13.2 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 13.2 15.7 20.0 108.5 64.6 58.5 7.4 11.4 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.2 13.0 15.2 117.0 68.2 58.8 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 25.7 28.8 19.5 107.2 64.5 56.9 16.7 22.8 29.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.3 18.7 18.6 109.5 65.5 57.6 7.5 12.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.7 19.3 19.5 104.4 63.5 56.1 8.0 13.5 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.2 17.6 18.1 103.6 63.3 55.2 8.0 12.7 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 14.6 17.8 19.0 111.8 66.3 58.2 7.9 12.3 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.4 17.1 95.8 59.7 52.4 9.9 15.0 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 15.3 18.0 20.2 105.3 63.5 55.5 6.9 12.2 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 18.5 18.8 19.2 121.7 70.1 60.5 6.6 11.0 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.3 17.5 17.9 104.1 63.2 55.5 7.9 12.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.4 12.8 14.7 115.3 67.7 57.4 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 16.9 19.2 20.6 103.9 63.1 56.3 9.2 14.3 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.3 12.8 15.2 108.9 65.2 56.3 4.4 8.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.3 20.4 97.2 59.3 53.3 9.1 13.4 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.7 17.2 18.2 111.9 66.4 58.0 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 12.5 15.4 110.7 66.2 56.9 4.2 7.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.9 13.7 17.0 111.9 66.2 57.6 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.0 20.8 19.6 105.5 63.5 55.9 8.7 14.6 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.4 18.8 20.7 118.3 68.7 58.3 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 17.5 17.7 21.2 123.3 70.5 62.4 5.7 10.0 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.4 14.8 18.9 113.5 66.7 55.7 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.5 17.3 19.0 116.6 68.3 59.7 6.8 11.0 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.1 22.1 20.9 101.2 61.4 54.8 11.3 17.2 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.9 11.7 15.5 111.7 66.2 56.5 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------