***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.2 11.8 14.8 88.8 57.7 49.1 6.0 9.7 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.4 14.2 94.1 59.9 49.9 3.1 6.1 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 14.3 89.7 58.1 49.7 5.0 8.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.5 16.3 91.0 58.3 49.0 5.9 10.0 15.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.8 16.0 98.1 61.2 52.3 4.3 7.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.9 19.7 102.5 62.0 53.1 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.5 14.4 95.0 60.5 49.6 3.1 6.0 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.6 20.0 18.3 105.6 63.5 53.0 9.4 14.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.5 16.2 95.6 60.0 51.3 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.6 18.7 101.1 61.8 52.4 4.8 8.9 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.8 11.2 15.9 103.2 63.1 53.0 4.1 7.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.3 16.5 104.7 63.4 53.1 3.9 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.6 10.3 18.1 99.2 61.0 51.8 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.6 19.5 91.7 57.7 50.6 6.1 10.3 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 8.9 14.7 84.3 56.4 46.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.2 16.8 99.0 61.3 52.1 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.9 14.0 95.8 60.3 49.7 4.0 7.2 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.3 13.2 20.1 98.3 60.6 51.7 5.6 9.8 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.6 8.9 14.1 91.1 58.6 49.4 3.7 6.9 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.2 20.4 101.7 61.8 52.0 5.1 8.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.6 14.3 87.4 57.0 48.8 4.3 7.1 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.2 13.1 85.3 55.6 47.1 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.3 14.1 86.6 56.2 47.7 3.4 6.2 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.4 17.8 93.6 58.6 50.8 4.9 8.9 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.6 16.6 88.9 57.8 49.4 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.2 18.1 105.2 63.6 54.1 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.4 16.1 91.1 58.9 50.4 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.4 15.7 87.7 57.0 48.0 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 18.0 20.3 99.4 60.9 51.7 7.7 13.3 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.0 14.2 92.5 59.3 49.4 3.7 6.7 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------