***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.5 20.3 124.1 70.8 56.1 3.1 5.3 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.9 14.1 20.9 141.4 75.8 60.4 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.7 20.8 128.8 72.3 57.3 3.5 6.5 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 17.8 18.4 22.4 124.7 71.0 60.4 6.7 11.0 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.0 20.2 115.3 67.9 56.1 3.8 6.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 17.1 16.6 24.9 118.4 68.8 60.3 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 12.3 14.1 20.1 139.0 75.3 60.1 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 21.9 27.9 22.7 115.0 67.4 57.0 11.6 18.4 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.5 21.2 118.0 68.9 55.1 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.0 14.5 23.7 115.1 67.5 55.0 4.7 8.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.5 18.8 111.0 66.2 55.2 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 12.6 15.7 19.3 112.0 66.4 57.1 5.8 10.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 16.5 15.1 22.6 114.7 67.3 59.5 6.2 9.9 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.7 18.6 25.9 122.0 70.0 56.9 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.5 10.8 21.3 124.0 71.0 58.7 3.2 5.7 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 13.6 12.5 20.5 114.4 67.4 57.7 5.1 8.2 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 14.9 19.0 20.9 149.6 77.9 62.0 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 17.4 26.9 122.2 70.0 57.1 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 14.5 16.8 21.4 138.5 75.0 59.4 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 16.9 28.8 129.1 72.4 61.1 5.5 9.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.8 10.9 20.5 123.7 70.8 56.2 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.8 15.8 22.9 154.3 79.0 62.3 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.1 21.5 130.7 72.8 57.2 5.2 9.1 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.7 15.8 24.3 124.7 70.9 56.4 4.3 8.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.1 22.3 121.7 70.0 56.8 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.5 14.7 22.1 123.3 70.5 62.5 4.9 8.3 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.4 21.2 121.5 69.9 55.8 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.8 10.7 21.7 122.0 70.2 59.2 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.6 22.9 27.9 127.3 71.8 59.9 6.0 11.5 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 11.6 12.8 20.6 135.2 74.1 58.7 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------