***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 36.5 51.7 65.6 103.1 58.6 51.2 37.2 46.7 56.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 43.6 48.7 62.5 109.4 63.8 55.6 28.3 38.8 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 55.1 56.9 65.1 104.7 60.0 52.3 39.0 49.7 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 71.9 73.9 73.2 104.8 60.1 55.2 57.1 67.5 78.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 57.8 56.8 67.0 100.3 56.4 50.9 39.3 51.7 65.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 58.2 56.5 75.5 99.3 54.5 51.1 43.3 53.6 64.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 43.6 49.7 62.5 110.9 64.8 56.7 28.2 38.7 50.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 97.7 94.9 73.3 98.9 54.3 50.1 79.4 91.8 104.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 56.5 55.7 68.7 100.8 56.8 50.6 38.7 50.5 63.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 66.4 63.5 75.5 98.6 54.1 49.2 49.0 60.5 72.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 58.4 55.3 64.6 97.7 53.8 49.3 40.8 52.6 65.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 60.6 59.4 66.3 99.9 55.5 51.1 46.4 56.0 66.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 63.5 57.3 68.1 92.7 48.2 45.8 47.8 58.7 69.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 68.6 63.3 78.2 96.6 52.0 49.1 48.4 61.6 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 51.8 53.6 67.7 104.2 59.9 55.2 36.7 46.9 58.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 58.2 54.4 65.8 96.0 52.0 48.6 41.8 53.0 65.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 46.1 55.3 62.2 113.6 66.8 59.2 29.0 40.9 54.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 65.5 63.4 81.7 99.4 54.6 49.7 49.0 60.3 72.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 50.8 54.1 63.0 106.4 61.3 53.4 33.9 45.3 58.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 44.7 54.9 81.6 95.7 50.5 47.5 45.5 54.5 64.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 49.7 49.8 65.6 101.0 57.1 50.6 36.7 45.7 55.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 45.3 49.5 62.9 108.2 62.8 55.4 30.2 40.4 51.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 51.5 51.1 63.9 101.7 57.3 50.5 36.6 46.5 57.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 62.9 61.2 74.5 99.4 54.9 49.7 46.3 57.7 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 56.7 56.2 72.5 100.8 56.8 50.7 41.4 51.6 62.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 53.4 56.4 72.3 105.4 60.5 55.8 38.2 49.0 60.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 37.5 55.6 69.5 102.4 58.1 51.3 38.2 49.6 62.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 53.1 53.2 68.9 101.8 57.7 53.6 37.7 48.1 59.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 84.8 80.3 81.8 98.1 53.2 48.9 63.5 77.5 93.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 43.7 47.0 62.8 107.4 62.2 54.0 30.0 39.4 49.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------