***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 6.2 5.9 6.6 0.0 50.3 50.1 4.7 5.9 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.5 6.4 0.1 51.7 51.3 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 7.7 7.5 6.7 0.1 51.5 51.2 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 1.9 2.7 4.8 0.9 65.6 64.1 0.4 1.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 5.1 5.2 5.1 0.3 54.6 54.3 3.6 4.8 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 4.3 4.6 2.7 0.6 59.1 58.6 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 6.0 5.8 6.4 0.1 52.7 52.1 4.5 5.6 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 -1.5 -1.1 2.5 0.6 60.2 59.5 -3.1 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 5.8 5.6 4.9 0.1 52.8 52.7 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 5.8 5.8 3.2 0.3 54.5 54.3 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 5.5 5.6 4.4 0.2 54.4 54.2 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 4.2 4.7 3.8 0.7 61.6 60.8 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 5.1 5.0 3.3 0.0 50.6 50.7 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 6.1 6.1 4.8 0.2 54.8 54.3 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 6.3 6.5 5.7 0.4 57.1 56.7 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 6.1 6.3 4.1 0.4 56.4 56.0 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 6.0 6.1 6.3 0.3 55.6 54.4 4.7 5.7 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 3.9 4.1 3.0 0.5 58.4 57.7 2.7 3.6 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.7 6.4 0.2 53.9 53.3 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 1.2 1.7 1.4 0.7 61.2 60.4 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 6.0 5.6 6.0 0.0 49.5 49.6 4.4 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 5.3 5.4 6.5 0.3 56.0 54.9 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 5.6 5.8 6.4 0.4 58.8 57.8 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 5.5 5.5 4.9 0.3 55.1 54.7 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 6.0 5.7 5.8 0.0 49.6 49.5 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 5.0 5.3 3.0 0.5 58.2 57.7 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 6.4 6.0 6.2 -0.1 48.9 48.9 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 4.9 5.4 5.1 0.7 61.8 60.8 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 2.4 2.8 2.1 0.6 59.5 58.8 1.0 2.1 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 6.2 5.9 6.6 0.1 51.6 51.2 4.6 5.8 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------