***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.1 7.8 0.2 52.6 52.3 6.0 7.0 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.3 7.3 -0.1 49.0 49.5 5.2 6.4 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.4 7.8 0.1 52.5 52.1 7.2 8.3 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.1 5.4 0.2 53.2 52.2 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.5 5.9 0.2 54.0 53.4 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.9 3.7 0.5 58.1 57.3 3.7 4.5 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.5 7.4 0.0 49.6 50.0 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.8 -0.8 3.5 0.4 56.4 56.7 -2.2 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.1 5.9 0.2 53.0 53.0 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.2 4.3 0.2 53.2 53.7 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.2 5.3 0.3 55.8 55.1 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.8 5.0 4.6 0.6 59.9 58.7 3.5 4.5 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.0 4.4 0.4 57.4 56.6 4.6 5.6 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.5 5.5 0.0 49.6 50.9 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.2 6.7 0.3 56.2 54.4 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.9 4.9 0.4 56.4 55.7 5.4 6.5 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.5 7.0 -0.2 46.9 47.6 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.4 3.7 0.2 52.6 53.5 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.4 7.3 0.0 50.3 50.5 5.3 6.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.7 2.0 0.4 56.0 57.4 0.5 1.4 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.2 7.2 0.1 52.0 51.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 7.0 -0.1 47.4 48.0 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.2 7.2 0.1 52.3 52.3 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.0 5.5 0.1 51.1 51.7 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 6.9 0.2 52.6 52.5 5.0 6.1 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 6.3 5.9 4.2 0.8 62.9 60.4 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.8 7.4 0.2 52.9 52.6 5.4 6.6 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.3 5.8 0.3 54.5 53.0 4.1 5.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.3 2.9 0.2 52.8 54.4 2.0 3.1 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.6 7.6 0.0 50.6 50.8 5.6 6.6 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------