***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.3 9.2 0.5 58.5 56.7 7.7 8.8 9.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.5 9.0 9.0 0.6 60.7 58.1 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 9.2 0.5 59.2 56.8 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.4 6.6 0.5 60.2 57.5 3.2 4.6 5.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.4 6.7 0.5 60.3 57.6 5.6 6.8 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.1 4.8 0.6 61.5 58.4 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 6.7 9.0 9.0 0.6 60.7 57.9 6.9 8.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.6 0.8 4.4 0.4 57.6 57.3 -0.9 0.3 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.0 7.0 0.5 60.4 57.4 6.3 7.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.9 5.4 0.4 58.3 57.1 6.4 7.4 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.5 6.0 0.5 60.6 58.4 6.0 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.8 5.2 0.5 59.1 57.7 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.0 4.8 0.4 58.5 56.4 5.7 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.4 6.8 0.3 56.3 56.0 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.6 7.8 0.6 61.2 57.9 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.6 5.6 0.6 60.8 58.1 6.9 7.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.1 9.1 8.8 0.6 60.8 58.3 7.3 8.4 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.8 4.5 0.3 55.8 55.9 4.4 5.5 6.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.6 8.8 8.9 0.6 60.5 58.1 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.6 2.4 0.2 53.8 55.3 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.0 8.3 0.5 58.9 56.6 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.4 8.4 8.6 0.6 61.0 58.6 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.5 8.7 0.5 60.2 57.8 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.7 6.5 0.4 57.3 56.1 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.5 7.8 0.5 57.8 56.5 6.6 7.9 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.0 4.6 0.6 61.7 58.0 5.7 6.5 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.1 8.6 0.5 58.8 57.0 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.8 6.9 0.6 61.3 57.8 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.3 5.1 3.9 0.2 54.4 55.7 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.2 9.1 0.6 59.8 57.4 7.0 8.4 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------