***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 11.3 10.6 1.2 70.5 63.9 9.1 10.1 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.9 10.3 1.1 69.3 62.9 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.7 10.4 1.0 68.6 62.8 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.7 8.0 1.2 72.2 66.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 9.3 9.3 7.9 0.9 68.3 63.3 7.1 8.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 7.9 8.1 5.9 1.1 71.4 65.5 6.0 6.9 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.9 10.4 1.2 70.9 63.9 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 2.4 2.8 5.4 0.7 63.4 60.2 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.2 9.8 8.1 0.9 67.3 62.2 8.0 8.9 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.6 6.3 0.7 63.5 59.8 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.3 7.0 0.8 67.0 62.4 7.7 8.5 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.9 6.2 0.8 66.8 62.6 6.2 7.0 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 8.9 9.0 6.0 0.9 68.8 63.7 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.1 7.7 0.6 61.7 58.2 8.9 9.7 10.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 10.9 11.3 9.3 1.4 76.5 68.9 9.0 9.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.5 6.7 1.0 69.7 64.3 8.5 9.5 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 10.9 11.0 10.1 1.1 69.3 62.7 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.1 5.5 0.5 60.5 57.4 6.0 6.7 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.7 10.2 1.0 68.3 62.5 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.4 3.4 0.6 60.3 58.0 3.1 3.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.3 10.0 9.6 1.0 69.1 63.4 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.0 9.7 0.9 66.9 61.6 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 10.3 10.3 9.8 0.9 67.0 61.9 8.8 9.5 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.6 7.5 0.6 62.2 58.6 8.4 9.1 9.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.7 9.2 1.2 70.9 64.6 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 8.7 9.0 5.9 1.2 73.4 67.7 7.1 7.9 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.9 10.0 1.2 71.0 64.3 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 8.7 9.0 8.3 1.2 73.5 67.0 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.0 4.8 0.5 59.5 57.0 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.1 10.4 1.1 69.5 63.1 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------