***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 8.1 8.4 8.5 0.5 62.8 59.6 7.3 7.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.7 8.0 8.2 0.4 62.4 58.7 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.8 8.5 0.4 62.3 58.6 8.6 9.3 10.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 4.5 4.6 6.2 0.7 69.2 64.4 3.2 3.9 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.8 6.4 0.5 64.0 60.4 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 44 56 100 5.8 5.8 4.3 0.7 68.2 64.1 4.7 5.2 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.1 8.3 0.5 63.6 59.6 6.9 7.5 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 0.1 0.4 4.0 0.5 63.9 61.4 -0.8 -0.1 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 7.1 7.4 6.5 0.4 63.0 59.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.2 7.4 4.8 0.4 61.0 58.5 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.1 5.7 0.5 64.0 60.8 6.1 6.7 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 5.8 5.8 4.9 0.6 67.5 64.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.7 4.6 0.5 62.8 59.8 5.7 6.3 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.8 6.2 0.3 58.5 56.1 6.9 7.5 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 8.3 8.3 7.4 0.7 69.5 64.7 7.2 7.7 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.0 5.3 0.6 65.9 62.1 6.8 7.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.2 8.1 0.5 62.9 59.2 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 5.2 5.3 4.2 0.4 60.1 57.8 4.5 5.0 5.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.9 8.2 0.4 63.0 59.2 6.8 7.4 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 2.4 2.5 2.3 0.5 61.6 59.5 1.6 2.2 2.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.5 7.8 0.4 61.6 58.5 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.2 7.4 7.9 0.4 62.3 59.0 6.4 7.0 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.7 8.0 0.5 64.7 60.3 6.5 7.2 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.1 7.2 6.1 0.3 59.7 57.1 6.3 6.9 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.5 7.8 7.4 0.5 62.2 59.5 6.7 7.3 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.7 6.8 4.4 0.8 70.0 66.0 5.6 6.1 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 8.0 8.4 8.1 0.5 62.6 59.6 7.0 7.8 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 6.4 6.5 6.5 0.7 69.1 64.2 5.4 5.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.5 3.4 0.4 59.8 57.9 3.4 4.1 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.2 8.4 0.4 62.6 58.8 7.0 7.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------