***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 17.5 18.3 17.9 1.8 75.8 70.6 14.7 16.1 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.6 18.2 17.7 1.7 74.5 68.6 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 17.6 18.2 17.9 1.7 72.8 68.0 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 10.8 11.6 15.3 2.2 77.1 73.5 7.8 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 17.1 18.6 16.4 1.8 72.3 68.2 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 17.4 17.8 14.6 1.8 71.8 68.7 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 17.4 18.1 17.6 1.7 74.4 68.5 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 5.0 6.3 14.4 1.6 70.1 66.5 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 16.6 18.0 17.3 1.7 71.6 67.2 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 16.7 17.8 15.4 1.5 68.6 64.9 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 17.0 18.4 16.8 1.7 71.2 67.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 17.2 17.8 15.5 1.8 73.1 69.0 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 17.3 18.5 16.0 1.5 68.9 65.3 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.5 17.3 16.6 1.1 64.7 61.2 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 18.3 19.1 18.1 2.5 82.0 78.4 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 18.4 18.9 16.2 1.8 72.3 68.4 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 15.8 17.3 17.1 1.4 71.4 65.7 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 16.1 17.1 14.5 1.3 66.3 62.7 14.3 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 17.4 18.1 17.8 1.7 74.1 68.6 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 12.4 12.9 12.7 1.8 71.3 67.1 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 87 13 100 16.7 18.1 17.9 1.6 71.0 66.6 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 16.4 17.7 17.1 1.3 68.7 63.6 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 17.7 18.2 17.9 1.7 73.5 68.4 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 16.3 17.3 16.6 1.2 65.6 62.0 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 17.6 18.3 16.9 1.8 74.3 69.7 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 17.7 18.4 14.7 2.1 76.1 71.4 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 43 57 100 17.7 18.4 17.3 1.7 74.6 69.5 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 18.1 18.8 16.5 2.2 77.6 74.2 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 11.0 12.1 14.0 1.4 67.4 63.5 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 17.6 18.2 17.8 1.8 75.2 69.6 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------