***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 16.5 19.0 18.1 0.7 59.2 55.0 16.9 18.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 16.1 18.8 17.9 0.7 59.4 54.7 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 16.2 18.9 18.2 0.7 58.9 55.0 16.5 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.7 15.7 0.9 61.5 56.7 9.5 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 16.5 19.1 16.8 0.9 61.1 56.6 16.8 18.2 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 18.2 17.9 15.2 1.3 64.9 60.1 15.5 16.8 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.8 18.4 17.8 0.7 59.2 54.4 16.2 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.8 15.1 1.2 63.2 58.7 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 18.3 18.6 17.5 1.0 61.2 56.8 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 16.1 18.7 16.0 1.0 61.8 57.3 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 16.2 19.0 17.1 1.2 63.8 58.6 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 17.5 18.1 16.2 1.3 65.4 60.1 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 19.4 19.1 16.5 1.3 65.6 60.3 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 16.1 18.3 16.6 0.3 53.9 51.7 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 18.5 19.1 17.7 1.1 65.1 58.8 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 16.6 19.6 16.7 1.3 65.3 59.8 16.9 18.3 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.4 17.9 17.4 0.5 56.8 52.5 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 15.6 18.1 15.2 0.8 59.4 55.8 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 15.9 18.6 18.0 0.7 59.2 54.9 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.9 12.9 1.0 60.9 57.3 10.6 12.0 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 16.2 18.6 18.1 0.8 59.1 55.2 16.4 17.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 16.0 18.4 17.2 0.3 53.7 50.9 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 18.8 19.0 18.0 0.7 59.0 55.1 16.6 18.1 19.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 15.9 18.3 16.8 0.6 57.1 54.0 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 16.2 18.7 16.9 0.7 58.6 54.6 16.6 18.0 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 18.6 18.9 15.9 2.0 72.8 66.1 15.9 17.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 16.0 18.5 17.4 0.6 58.4 54.4 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 18.5 19.0 16.7 1.1 64.0 58.5 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 10.3 12.9 14.4 0.8 59.0 55.6 10.7 12.2 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.8 18.6 18.0 0.7 59.5 55.0 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------