***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.04.2017.-30.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 22.0 21.5 19.6 1.0 63.9 59.4 19.2 20.4 21.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 22.3 22.0 19.6 1.3 68.1 61.7 18.8 20.3 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 22.0 21.5 19.8 1.1 64.5 59.6 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.8 14.0 17.4 1.0 62.8 58.7 11.0 12.8 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 22.1 21.4 18.0 1.0 62.1 58.6 18.8 20.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 16.6 19.6 16.0 1.0 61.3 58.2 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 21.9 21.6 19.5 1.3 67.6 61.5 18.4 20.0 21.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.6 8.9 16.4 1.0 61.8 58.7 6.3 7.9 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 21.6 21.0 18.4 1.0 62.5 59.0 18.3 19.8 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 21.5 20.9 17.2 1.0 62.1 58.9 18.3 19.8 21.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 21.9 21.2 17.9 1.1 63.3 59.5 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.9 20.4 17.4 1.1 63.4 59.6 17.5 19.1 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 21.8 21.2 16.7 1.0 62.3 59.1 18.4 20.0 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 18.3 21.2 18.0 0.9 61.1 57.5 18.6 20.2 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 21.5 21.4 18.4 1.3 67.0 60.7 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 22.4 21.7 17.4 1.1 63.2 59.5 18.8 20.4 22.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 21.5 21.1 19.3 1.2 66.6 60.9 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 21.2 20.4 16.7 0.9 61.0 58.3 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 21.8 21.5 19.7 1.3 67.3 61.2 18.3 19.9 21.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 12.4 15.2 13.9 0.8 59.1 57.3 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 18.2 21.2 19.1 0.9 61.7 58.2 18.6 20.1 21.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 22.1 21.6 19.0 1.0 64.0 59.2 18.6 20.2 21.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 22.1 21.7 19.6 1.2 65.5 60.0 18.6 20.3 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 21.5 20.8 18.1 1.0 61.8 58.3 18.2 19.8 21.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 18.4 21.0 17.9 0.9 61.4 57.9 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 20.9 21.0 16.9 1.6 69.8 64.0 17.6 19.1 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 21.6 21.0 18.8 0.9 62.7 58.8 18.5 19.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 18.2 21.3 17.8 1.1 63.9 59.4 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 16.2 15.2 15.7 0.8 59.7 57.6 12.7 14.3 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 21.9 21.6 19.6 1.3 67.2 61.2 18.4 20.0 21.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------