***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.05.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 22.8 24.1 20.8 1.7 71.1 64.7 21.1 22.4 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 23.6 24.0 20.8 1.8 72.3 65.6 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 22.8 23.9 21.0 1.6 69.8 63.8 21.1 22.4 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 16.2 16.4 18.6 1.6 71.2 64.9 13.6 14.8 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 23.7 23.7 19.2 1.6 69.3 63.5 21.0 22.3 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 22.1 22.2 17.1 1.6 69.4 63.7 19.2 20.6 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 23.2 23.7 20.9 1.9 73.2 66.2 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.1 17.3 1.3 66.4 61.1 8.3 9.7 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 23.2 23.2 19.4 1.6 68.7 63.1 20.6 21.8 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 23.1 23.0 18.2 1.5 67.3 62.0 20.5 21.7 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.5 19.0 1.6 70.0 63.9 20.6 21.9 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 22.3 22.4 18.4 1.5 69.0 62.9 19.6 20.9 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 23.3 23.3 17.8 1.6 69.2 63.3 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.6 23.2 18.9 1.3 64.3 59.9 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 23.3 23.7 19.7 1.9 75.5 67.9 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 23.8 24.0 18.6 1.7 70.5 64.2 21.0 22.3 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 22.8 23.1 20.6 1.8 71.2 64.9 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.8 22.4 17.6 1.3 65.1 60.4 19.9 21.2 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 22.3 23.5 20.8 1.8 71.2 64.9 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.2 14.8 1.0 62.2 58.1 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 22.6 23.5 20.3 1.5 68.2 62.7 20.9 22.1 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 22.5 23.5 20.2 1.4 67.6 62.2 20.6 22.0 23.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 22.6 23.7 20.7 1.6 69.5 63.6 20.8 22.2 23.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.9 19.0 1.4 65.9 61.1 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.4 23.4 19.2 1.6 69.9 64.0 20.8 22.0 23.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 22.5 23.0 18.0 2.0 74.5 66.8 19.6 20.9 22.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 22.3 23.4 20.1 1.7 71.1 64.7 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 23.3 23.5 19.0 1.7 72.3 65.7 20.8 22.0 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.2 16.5 1.2 63.5 59.1 14.7 16.1 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 23.4 23.8 20.9 1.8 72.2 65.5 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------