***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.04.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-07.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 20.1 20.6 19.1 1.3 76.2 67.6 18.5 19.3 20.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 20.1 20.7 19.0 1.4 77.2 67.9 18.2 19.1 20.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 20.1 20.5 19.2 1.3 74.8 66.7 18.4 19.2 20.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.4 16.8 1.4 77.4 69.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 20.3 20.6 17.6 1.3 74.7 67.5 18.6 19.4 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 18.9 19.2 15.7 1.4 75.9 69.7 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 19.8 20.4 19.0 1.4 77.4 67.6 18.0 18.9 19.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.3 15.8 1.3 73.3 67.2 6.1 7.0 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 19.9 20.2 18.1 1.3 74.3 67.0 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 19.8 20.0 16.7 1.3 72.8 66.3 18.1 18.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 20.1 20.5 17.7 1.4 76.0 68.7 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 19.2 19.5 16.9 1.4 76.6 69.7 17.4 18.2 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 20.0 20.4 16.7 1.4 75.2 68.6 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 19.4 20.0 17.5 0.9 67.0 61.2 18.1 19.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 20.1 20.8 18.5 1.7 83.0 73.6 18.4 19.1 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 20.5 21.0 17.2 1.5 77.1 69.8 18.7 19.5 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 19.4 19.8 18.6 1.2 74.3 65.7 17.5 18.5 19.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 19.3 19.4 16.0 1.1 69.8 64.1 17.6 18.4 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 19.8 20.4 19.1 1.4 76.4 67.6 17.9 18.9 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 14.5 13.6 1.1 70.2 64.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 20.1 20.3 18.8 1.2 72.9 65.7 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 19.4 20.2 18.4 1.0 70.2 63.0 18.1 19.1 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 20.1 20.6 19.1 1.3 75.2 66.9 18.2 19.2 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.8 17.6 1.0 69.5 63.4 17.9 18.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 20.0 20.3 17.7 1.2 74.3 66.8 18.3 19.1 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 19.4 20.1 16.4 1.9 83.4 75.7 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 19.8 20.2 18.4 1.2 75.1 67.0 18.2 19.0 19.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 20.1 20.6 17.5 1.5 79.3 71.2 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.3 15.1 1.1 68.9 63.5 12.4 13.3 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 19.9 20.5 19.1 1.4 77.3 68.1 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------